President Trump has broken the back of the traditional Democratic coalition and that’s the subject of the riff. With thirteen days to go until Election Day, there’s one thing that has become very clear: Donald Trump has broken the back of the traditional Democratic coalition.
This may not be altogether new news, but anyone casually following the race can see that Mr. Trump has invaded the Democratic turf – with middle-class working folks, unions, Blacks, Hispanics, young voters, Catholics and Jews.
I see references among the liberal punditry that Kamala has two weeks to pull everything back together. Don’t believe it. Two weeks is way too short a period of time. Trump’s breakup of the old Democratic coalition actually started many years ago, when he first ran for president, and it has ebbed and flowed since then. Right now, it looks like it’s reaching high tide.
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No one knows who will carry the “blue wall,” but Trump has never had better numbers than today in all those industrial states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. No one knows who will carry the Sun Belt, but Trump has never had better numbers in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada. This is because he has fractured the traditional Democratic base. Right now, Kamala is playing defense, and Trump is playing offense. He’s encroaching. She’s defending.
It’s a combination of the economy, the open border and culture. When you look at the growth in median take-home pay, Trump beats Biden-Harris by roughly 7-to-1. Nearly 10-to-1 among Hispanics, 10-to-1 among Asians, 10-to-1 among Whites, 2-to-1 among Blacks.
During the Biden-Harris term, inflation has been three times what it was under Trump. Illegal immigration during the Biden-Harris years surged 515% in the seven swing states. Regrettably, a big jump in violent crime has followed the explosion of illegal immigration and the breakup of the Democratic coalition is not only economic, or in response to the open borders – it has to do with culture.
Traditional middle-class folks, no matter their color or creed, do not like the radical woke culture mandated by the Biden-Harris administration. Teamsters and UAW members are for Trump because they believe he’ll protect them from unfair global competition, and from the crime wave coming from the open Southern border, but they also don’t like biological men competing in women’s sports. They don’t like free gender surgeries for prisoners. Or gender operations on kids without parental approval.
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America’s working class is offended by the Biden-Harris cancel culture, just as they are depleted by the lack of economic progress or demoralized by the lack of economic opportunity and they do not want their religion mocked or insulted – ever.
So, we’ve got thirteen days to go. We don’t know the final vote, but we do know Donald Trump has been redefining and remaking the Republican Party into its biggest tent ever, but the Democratic coalition under Kamala is so badly frayed, it will likely never be the same again. That’s the riff.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening commentary on the Oct. 23, 2024, edition of “Kudlow.”
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