While polls show the 2024 presidential race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is neck and neck ahead of Election Day, the GOP nominee is heavily favored to win in nearly all betting markets.
Traders on crypto-based Polymarket, the largest prediction market, saw Trump as having a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House as of Monday afternoon, compared to Harris’ 41.9%.
On U.S.-based platform Kalshi, traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris’ 45%.
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Trump is also projected to win, according to every prediction market tracked by RealClearPolitics. RCP betting odds data collectively gives the former president a 57.9% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 40.7%.
However, there is one notable exception. Bettors on PredictIt slightly favored Harris, giving the vice president a 55% chance of winning compared to 53% for Trump on the eve of Election Day.
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Critics argue that election-based betting markets are a threat to democracy, but proponents claim they serve as a better gauge on the outcome of a race than polls.
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The last national poll conducted by NBC News released over the weekend showed Trump and Harris in a dead heat, each favored by 49% of Americans, with 2% of voters saying they are still undecided.
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