Raghav Chadha & BJP Explored 5 Options, Settled for 'TDP Model': What's Next?

The BJP understands that it can expand in Punjab only if either Congress or AAP collapses in the state. The BJP has managed to win over a large number of Congress leaders, but it has not resulted in any break in the Congress’ base or even the party organisation.

This is what happened in Arunachal Pradesh in 2016, when Pema Khandu first formed the People’s Party of Arunachal which later merged into the BJP.

However, this proved to be trickier than expected, for two main reasons.

First, no MLA seemed keen to switch sides and go for a bypoll. Every Punjab leader from AAP, Congress and Akali Dal who defected to the BJP on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections, ended up losing – be it Ravneet Bittu in Ludhiana, Sushil Rinku in Jalandhar, Rana Gurmeet Sodhi in Firozpur or Arvind Khanna in Sangrur. This history also weighed heavily on the MLAs.

Another issue was timing. BJP’s strategists for Punjab wanted this split sooner rather than later. The MLAs who had been approached, on the other hand, wanted to weigh their options and switch 6-8 months before the 2027 Assembly elections, so that they don’t have to face a bypoll.

Second, Chadha had been sidelined from Punjab affairs due to his own absence and also because Kejriwal and Sisodia had begun taking active interest in the state after the defeat in Delhi in 2025. This made it tougher for the BJP and Chadha to win over any meaningful number of MLAs.