2026 Kerala Elections: Anti-Incumbency, an Opposition in Swing & New Players

The LDF made history in 2021 by winning the assembly elections consecutively, a feat not achieved in over four decades. While the win was historic, the chance of bagging a third term hasn’t looked favourable since the recent local body polls in December 2025, when UDF won the majority of the seats. 

The results of the 2025 local body elections showed regional differences in support, along with a noticeable shift in party dominance across the state, with the Congress-led opposition outperforming the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led LDF and the NDA expanding its grounds. 

LDF secured 33.45 percent of the vote share, winning only one of the six corporations, while UDF secured 38.81 percent and won four of the six corporations. NDA saw considerable growth, 14.71 percent vote share and winning one corporation, Thiruvananthapuram, which was LDF’s stronghold. 

LDF saw a decline in four constituencies it had won in the 2020 local body polls. The party had seen a clear majority in Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram corporations. In the 2020 local body polls, in the Kochi corporation, the LDF won 34 seats, including five Left-backed Independent candidates, while the UDF gained 31 seats, including one Congress-backed Independent candidate. In Thrissur corporation, LDF came to power with the support of independents and by making UDF rebel candidate M.K. Varghese the new mayor.

The charts compare poll results for the four constituencies across the two elections. 

The LDF saw a drop in support in several municipalities within constituencies it had won in the 2021 Assembly Election, such as Pattambi, Ettumanoor, Thaliparambu, Kayamkulam, and Chengannur.

While local candidates influence votes in local body polls, they can also reveal shifting support across Kerala. 

It is worth looking at some of the constituencies that have emerged as important in this election before the results are declared on 4 May.