Ontario Energy Minister Stephen Lecce said in October 2024 that the province should build enough electricity supply to meet rapidly growing domestic demand and export additional power. His “energy superpower” vision emphasized nuclear and hydro generation, while retaining natural gas for peak reliability.
A projected 75 per cent demand increase
The Independent Electricity System Operator forecast electricity demand would rise 75 per cent by 2050, faster than previously expected. Population growth, industrial investment, electric vehicles, data centres and replacement of fossil-fuel equipment can all add load.
A long-range forecast is a planning scenario, not a precise meter reading for 2050. Procurement should be staged and updated so customers do not pay too early for capacity that may not be needed.
Ontario’s proposed supply mix
The province planned to prioritize nuclear and hydroelectric power for dependable low-emission supply. It was pursuing four small modular reactors, considering a new large nuclear station and procuring other resources.
Nuclear plants can deliver large volumes with low operational greenhouse-gas emissions, but require major capital, long construction schedules, waste management and rigorous safety oversight. Hydroelectric expansion has ecological and Indigenous-rights implications that require consultation.
The natural-gas trade-off
Ontario argued gas generation could respond quickly when demand peaked or other supply was unavailable. The share of emissions-free electricity had fallen from 94 per cent in 2021 to 87 per cent as gas use increased.
Gas may support reliability and broader electrification, but its emissions still count. Plans should publish expected annual operation, methane assumptions and credible pathways to reduce or replace gas as storage and other firm resources expand.
Conservation as infrastructure
The government also planned new efficiency programmes. Insulation, efficient cooling, industrial controls and demand response can meet part of the need at lower cost than new generation.
Efficiency must be measured through verified savings and designed so renters and lower-income households can participate, rather than concentrating incentives among people already able to finance upgrades.
Export opportunity and risk
Ontario has transmission connections with Manitoba, Quebec, Minnesota, Michigan and New York and had been a net exporter since 2006. Lecce argued that neighbouring jurisdictions with supply gaps or clean-energy commitments could become customers.
Ontario has sometimes sold surplus electricity at a loss. An export strategy only benefits ratepayers if contracts cover incremental costs and do not compromise domestic reliability or affordability.
Technology exports
Lecce also promoted Ontario’s nuclear expertise, including small modular reactor partnerships, as an export industry. Selling engineering and components could create jobs without requiring every transaction to involve electricity crossing a wire.
Claims of leadership need evidence: completed projects, cost control, safety performance, intellectual property retained in Canada and commercial customers.
What accountability requires
An integrated energy plan should compare generation, transmission, storage, conservation and distributed resources on cost, reliability and emissions. Competitive procurement can help, but nuclear megaprojects also need transparent independent review.
Becoming an energy superpower is a political ambition, not a measured outcome. Ontario’s first obligation remained reliable and affordable power for residents and industry. Exports would be a success only if they strengthened that obligation rather than shifting project risk onto captive ratepayers.
