Today’s jobs report was weaker than expected. It was soft and soggy.
Once again, past months were revised down. Why are all these jobs evaporating? Remember, the Bureau of Labor Statistics evaporated over 800,000 jobs in their latest benchmark revision.
Actually, today’s number for non-farm payrolls isn’t really 142,000, which was lighter than expected. It’s 142,000 minus the 86,000 downward revision, which comes to only 86,000 for corporate payrolls.
Look at private payrolls, which is more important. The reported number is 118,00, but June and July came in 62,000 lower than originally published, which means actually private payrolls in August were a measly 56,000.
Then, healthcare and social assistance, which is essentially government-sponsored jobs, and government jobs themselves, came to 68,000, which is 80% of the so-called August job increase. Pretty poor, wouldn’t you say?
It’s not a recession, exactly, but it looks like the front end of a recession, which is why the stock market is heavily in the red. This is one of those days where bad news is in fact bad news, and we’ve had quite a few of these recently, haven’t we, with bad news on manufacturing and housing? Now, I’ve got a better idea… Take a listen to this:
WHICH INDUSTRIES HIRED THE MOST WORKERS IN AUGUST?
FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP: A combination of fair trade, tax cuts, regulatory cuts and energy abundance will allow us to produce more goods, better and cheaper right here in the USA than we’ve ever done before, and foreign nations will respect us again.
That, of course, was Donald Trump speaking at the Economic Club of New York yesterday. It was an optimistic speech about American renewal, unleashing prosperity. It was a growthier speech. Kamala Democrats never talk growth. Biden Democrats never talk growth, but when Republicans talk growth, they win.
A recent Kudlow/TIPP poll asked how important is economic growth to help individuals climb the ladder of success. Answer: 60% very important; 30% somewhat important. That’s 90% pro-growth. My friends at the TIPP poll have the most accurate poll, according to the data. So, if Mr. Trump keeps hammering away on the growth theme, he’s going to be a winner. Here’s Mr. Trump yesterday hammering the growth message home:
TRUMP: We’re going to have tremendous growth. What I’m talking about is all about growth. | We’re going to make our money back on growth. We’re going to also, I mean, we’re going to grow like nobody’s ever grown before.
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Just keep it up. You can’t say enough about growth. Growth means 400,000 or 500,000 new private sector jobs per month, not 56,000. Growth means 3.4% or 5% — not 2% or less. Growth means America wins the global race for capital. The JFK tax cuts produced nearly 6% growth, without inflation. The Reagan tax cuts produced about 5.5% growth, with diminishing inflation.
Mr. Trump had a head start on it during his first term, but now he’s going back in the battle to finish the job. If he stays growthier, he’s going to be a winner.
This article is adapted from Larry Kudlow’s opening commentary on the Sept. 6, 2024, edition of “Kudlow.”
