Greater Toronto Area real-estate agents said in October 2024 that buyers still viewing homes were highly motivated, even though elevated borrowing costs and abundant inventory kept the market soft. Some predicted lower interest rates and new mortgage rules could produce a much busier spring in 2025.
The market at the time
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board recorded 4,996 home sales in September 2024, only a modest increase from a year earlier. The average selling price was about one per cent higher year over year, while listings gave purchasers more choice and reduced the urgency that had characterized the pandemic market.
Agents reported fewer showings and offers. That did not mean every property was discounted: neighbourhood, housing type, condition and asking strategy still produced very different results.
What “motivated” meant
Toronto agent Melanie Piche said casual browsing had declined and people booking viewings were more likely to have an active need to move. Ajax agent Doug Gordon described offers as substantially lower than in the spring, while buyers took longer to compare homes.
Motivation is not the same as purchasing power. A household can want to buy but fail a lender’s stress test, face a monthly payment it considers unsafe or decide that the price does not compensate for taxes, maintenance and transaction costs.
Interest-rate expectations
The Bank of Canada had reduced its policy rate three times by early September, to 4.25 per cent. On October 23 it made a larger half-point cut, and another half-point reduction in December brought the rate to 3.25 per cent by year’s end.
Variable-rate borrowing responds relatively quickly to policy changes, while fixed mortgage rates reflect bond markets and expectations. Lower rates can improve affordability, but they can also draw more buyers into competition; the sale price and financing cost must be considered together.
Mortgage rules were changing
From December 15, 2024, the federal price ceiling for an insured mortgage increased from $1 million to $1.5 million. Thirty-year insured amortizations also became available to all first-time buyers and buyers of new construction.
A longer amortization lowers the required monthly payment but usually increases total interest and leaves the borrower in debt longer. The rules expanded qualification options; they did not make a high-priced home inexpensive.
The predicted surge did not simply arrive
Spring 2025 provided a useful check on the forecasts. TRREB reported 5,601 sales in April, down 23.3 per cent from April 2024, while active listings rose sharply. The average price was 4.1 per cent lower year over year.
Lower borrowing costs had created better conditions for some households, but economic and trade uncertainty weakened confidence. The result showed why a realtor’s forecast should be treated as informed opinion rather than a promise that prices or competition will rise.
How buyers could respond
A purchaser needed a pre-approval, an independent budget for closing and ownership costs, and conditions appropriate to financing and inspection risk. Competing simply because others might return to the market could turn a timing decision into an unaffordable commitment.
Sellers likewise benefited from recent comparable sales rather than an old peak price. In a high-inventory market, an unrealistic asking price can increase days on market without producing a stronger offer.
The durable lesson
The October 2024 market contained real pent-up demand, falling rates and regulatory changes, but those factors did not determine the next season alone. Jobs, confidence, listings and population growth also mattered.
“Motivated buyers” described the people who remained active; it was not evidence of an imminent boom. The later data reinforced a more useful rule for readers: separate observable sales and inventory from predictions made by professionals whose businesses benefit when transactions increase.
