Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe’s approval rating fell to 45 per cent shortly before the 2024 provincial election campaign, according to an Angus Reid Institute survey published September 19. The four-point quarterly decline put the Saskatchewan Party leader at his lowest level in roughly two years.
The number measured job approval
Respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of Moe’s performance as premier. That is different from a ballot question: a voter can disapprove of a leader yet support the party, approve while choosing an opponent, or remain undecided.
The result was a snapshot rather than a forecast.
The direction was downward
Moe had registered 49 per cent approval in the preceding quarterly measure. The September result continued a decline from higher ratings earlier in his tenure and was close to his previous low during 2021.
Poll-to-poll movement must still be read alongside sampling uncertainty.
The election environment had tightened
The Saskatchewan Party had won four consecutive majorities since 2007, but polling suggested the New Democratic Party under Carla Beck was more competitive than in recent campaigns. Urban discontent in Regina and Saskatoon contrasted with stronger incumbent support elsewhere.
That geographic divide shaped the battle for seats.
Affordability and health care dominated concerns
Cost-of-living pressure, access to health services and the provincial economy were prominent issues. Opposition supporters also emphasized education, while Saskatchewan Party voters were more likely to cite public safety, government spending and energy policy.
Leader approval reflected only part of that wider evaluation.
The survey had methodological limits
Angus Reid used an online panel and weighted results to demographic benchmarks. Online-panel surveys do not have a conventional probability margin of error, although the publisher provided an equivalent comparison for samples of similar size.
Sub-provincial breakdowns involved fewer respondents and therefore greater uncertainty.
Other premiers provided context
Manitoba’s Wab Kinew led the September approval table at 66 per cent. New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs was lowest at 30 per cent, while Ontario’s Doug Ford registered 31 per cent.
Different provincial conditions mean the ranking should not be treated as a controlled performance test.
Campaigns can change the public mood
A writ period concentrates attention on policy promises, debates, candidate quality and local races. Approval measured before that period does not account for later events or turnout.
The only binding result is the vote, not a popularity table.
The later election supplied that distinction
On October 28, 2024, Moe’s Saskatchewan Party won another majority, although with a reduced seat count and major losses in the two largest cities. The NDP formed a substantially larger opposition.
His approval later rebounded, further demonstrating that one poll cannot be frozen as a permanent verdict.
How to read the 45 per cent figure
The survey offered credible evidence that Moe entered the campaign with weaker personal ratings than three months earlier. It did not prove that 55 per cent would vote against him, identify why every respondent disapproved or predetermine the election.
Responsible reporting states the question, field dates, sponsor, sample method and uncertainty, then separates approval from voting intention and results. On those terms, the number was a meaningful warning for the incumbent—not an election outcome.
Comparisons should use the same polling organization and question wherever possible because different methods can produce different levels.
