Sonam Wangchuk-Govt Deal Puts CJP & Oppn in a Bind: What Led to it? What Next?
The government is trying to fragment its opponents. Wangchuk is now more or less out of the way. The government’s plan is now to restrict the Opposition to a debate in Parliament and the CJP to the negotiations at the Constitution Club. The larger aim is to tire out the common protestors.
The other threat looming over the Opposition and, more so, the CJP is of the government arresting protesters. The government has left its agreement with Wangchuk on arrests a bit ambiguous. It has promised not to arrest any youth peacefully protesting at Jantar Mantar and those who took part in the march on 20 July. But then what about protesters who were at Connaught Place and other locations? How about those who were detained on their way to the protest sites or detained in other cities? There doesn’t seem to be any direct commitment on them.
Both the CJP and the Opposition see the Pradhan issue as one among many more mobilisations to come. Large-scale arrests here can affect future mobilisations.
The government is counting on isolating the Opposition and CJP and getting them to agree to a dialogue without removing Pradhan. The government also hopes that it can wear down the GenZ protesters through a combination of the carrot of the PM’s assurances on paper leaks as well as the stick of possible arrests.
Perhaps the CJP and Opposition, especially the Congress, may have to coordinate a lot better on how they plan to respond to the government without compromising on the core demand of Pradhan’s resignation.
The government, on its part, seems to be willing to make every concession short of removing Pradhan. The reason for this is simple. Every other measure can be spun either as PM Modi’s generosity (compensation) or his decisiveness (action against paper leak accused). Removing Pradhan, however, would be an admission of guilt.
The question now is: who will blink first – government, opposition or CJP? And how long will the common protesters sustain if Pradhan isn’t removed?
