France’s record-hot summer: at least 7,007 excess deaths counted across two heatwave periods
France recorded at least 7,007 excess deaths across two consecutive heatwave periods from June 17 to July 22, according to preliminary estimates from the national public-health agency. The figures arrive alongside Météo-France’s conclusion that summer 2026 was the country’s hottest since national records began in 1900.
Santé publique France estimated 5,764 excess all-cause deaths during heat-affected days and departments from June 17 to July 2. It later estimated another 1,243 for July 3 to 22, producing a combined minimum of 7,007 across the non-overlapping periods.
What the mortality figures do and do not show
“Excess deaths” are the difference between observed deaths and the number expected from a statistical model. They show an unusual mortality burden during heatwave conditions but are not death certificates proving heat was the medical cause in every case. The agency says the figures are preliminary and based on unconsolidated all-cause data.
In the July assessment, 78 departments representing 78.5% of mainland France’s population were affected. People aged 75 and older accounted for 917 of the estimated 1,243 excess deaths. Hospitals, homes and residential-care settings all recorded increases.
A season outside France’s historical range
Météo-France reports that the summer temperature was about 5.0°C above the pre-industrial seasonal average. Its attribution analysis estimates 2.4°C of that anomaly, with a range of 1.8°C to 3.0°C, was directly linked to human-caused climate change. The agency describes a summer this hot as nearly impossible without that warming influence.
Heat was compounded by low rainfall, dry soils and fire weather. Météo-France recorded 27 days when at least one department faced the highest fire-danger level and 74 consecutive days with at least one department at high danger.
The mortality total does not yet represent a final assessment of the entire summer, including later heat. A consolidated surveillance report is still needed. Even so, the available evidence already shows a major public-health event extending beyond isolated record temperatures.
Sources: Santé publique France June mortality estimate; July mortality estimate; Météo-France summer climate assessment.
Dry landscape accompanying the summer 2026 climate assessment. Photo: Météo-France.
