An Ipsos poll conducted for Global News in September 2024 found 56 percent of Canadians preferred opposition parties to work with the minority Liberal government and avoid an early election. Forty-four percent favoured defeating the government and triggering a vote.
The context was a minority Parliament
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had ended the supply-and-confidence agreement that helped keep Justin Trudeau’s government in office. The change made confidence votes less predictable without automatically causing an election.
Each opposition party could decide how to vote on individual measures.
The question measured timing, not party support
A respondent could disapprove of the government yet prefer Parliament to continue, or support a governing party while wanting an election. The 56-percent result should not be read as Liberal approval.
Election preference and voting intention are separate measures.
The poll ran from September 6 to 10
Ipsos used an online sample and weighted results to reflect census characteristics. For non-probability panels, a traditional random-sampling margin of error is not directly applicable.
Methodology and question wording should accompany headline percentages.
Partisan differences were expected
Conservative supporters, whose party led many voting-intention polls, had stronger reason to want an immediate contest. Liberal and NDP supporters could prefer time before voting.
That does not make views insincere; incentives shape political timing.
Canadians do not directly schedule elections
A government falls if it loses a confidence vote, unless the governor general accepts another constitutional path. The prime minister can also request dissolution within legal and constitutional limits.
A public poll informs political judgment but has no binding force.
Opposition cooperation can take many forms
Parties may support budgets, negotiate amendments or abstain without recreating a formal governing agreement. They can also oppose the government on non-confidence matters.
“Work with” should not imply a permanent coalition.
Opinion can change quickly
Economic news, scandals, policy announcements and byelections can shift views. A poll is a snapshot of interviews during specified days, not a forecast of what Canadians would want months later.
Differences of a few points should not be overinterpreted.
The fixed election date was approaching in 2025
Unless Parliament fell earlier, a federal vote was due by October 2025. Some respondents may have regarded waiting one year differently from opposing an election indefinitely.
Questions using alternative dates might produce other answers.
The balanced conclusion was limited
At that moment, the surveyed public leaned toward parliamentary cooperation over immediate defeat, but a large 44-percent minority wanted an election. The result described preference, not legitimacy.
MPs remained responsible for confidence decisions and voters retained the final choice when an election occurred. Accurate coverage should present both numbers, method and political context rather than frame a divided result as a universal demand.
Issue priorities could explain the preference
Some voters may have wanted Parliament to finish work on affordability, health care or other measures before campaigning began. Others may have believed a new mandate was necessary to address the same concerns. The poll headline could not identify every motive behind a response. Reporting related questions about priorities and leader evaluations would provide a fuller picture while avoiding the assumption that all members of either group reached their view for the same reason.
